As I watched Barack Obama’s victory speech live on TV, like many others, I felt for a moment like a dream had finally come true and a dream synonymous with Dr. Martin Luther King indeed it was. I felt a kind of sentiment that reminded me of a movie I watched about slavery and the long suffering for the liberation of Black Americans in the US and I honestly couldn’t believe that tears were filling my eyes as I watched Barack Obama and his family wave at the multitudes of supporters.
That aside, I would like to know by show of hands, how many of you believe that the US, mighty as it may seem, will one day drop at her knees begging for financial bailouts from countries like China and India in the not too distant future? Not surprising if you don’t believe this now but when it comes to pass, you may want to refer to me as another guru. The current economic whirlwind that started with a credit crunch in the US early this year and has contagiously spread over to other nations may be just a tip of the iceberg.

A looming recession that is feared might degenerate into a full blown depression is one of the threats feared likely to dethrone the USfrom its superpower majesty. The recent economic summit of the G20 most powerful economies in Washington is an indication that the direction of the world economy is no longer decided upon by a few nations as the case has been with
the G7 group. The Middle East for instance, when combined has an economic strength comparable to eastern and central Europe and so it’s exclusion from global economic summits may inadvertently hinder progress in the implementation of certain major global economic decisions.
Likewise when India and China are combined, their economic strength constitutes the economies in the whole of central and Western Europe. Never has the world seen the simultaneous, sustained economic takeoffs of two nations that together account for one-third
of the planet's population. China and India, by contrast, possess the weight and dynamism to transform the 21st-century global economy. With one of the world’s highest economic growth rates, both giants have been closely observed with a mixture of awe, opportunism, and trepidation by the West. Economic analysts agree that if the current economic growth rates are maintained for the next three decades, China would have over taken the US as the world’s largest economy and India would have vaulted over Germany as the world’s third largest economy. That’s really astounding. What makes the two giants especially powerful is that they complement each other's strengths. For instance, China will stay dominant in mass
manufacturing, and is one of the few nations building multibilliondollar electronics and heavy industrial plants. India on the other hand is a rising power in software, design, services, and precision
industry. This raises a provocative question: What if the two nations merge into one giant "Chindia"? Of course that’s a far fetched imagination that is highly unlikely considering their political interests. But if their economies are to combine as one, they would comfortably take over the US as the world’s superpower economically.
Rivalry for preeminence and competition between the two neighbouring giants is evident far beyond their political boundaries. A kind of gold rush by China and India over Africa’s natural resources is a good example where both nations have done everything within their means to create stronger cordial relations with African government leaders. First was China which invited over forty African leaders for an economic summit in Beijing in November 2006. Two years later in April 2008, India held a similar summit with African leaders. Like the economy, science and technology is another area where both nations are vying for supremacy.

After China sent its first citizen to the moon in 2003 and again in 2005, India was challenged to launch the unmanned Chandrayaan mission to the moon in October 2008 and work is going on to send its first citizen to the moon. This rivalry between China and India is in fact to their own advantage. The US has every reason to be afraid of both nations as they may pose a threat over US’s supremacy and decisions. I envision a time when the world would be looking forward to seeing the next Chinese president or the next Indian Prime Minister as the bearer of the office of the world’s top political throne.

Edward Kasamba
B.Com Alumnus
Batch 2003-‘04